Eagle Wheels

Oct 28, 2011
PARAGON E-877-00 / E877-00 TIMER: PARAGON E87700 DEFROST TIME FOR RACK SYSTEM

Oct 27, 2011
PARAGON B-877-20 / B877-20 TIMER: PARAGON B87720 DEFROST TIMER FOR RACK SYSTEM

Oct 25, 2011
Think Safety: Be prepared for changing weather. Check your brakes, tire pressure, tread depth, defrost system and wiper blades.

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As I wrote a few weeks ago, we've believed that the vast majority of investors have been obsessed with identifying a downside "black swan" or crisis due to the long shadow of anxiety the 2008 crisis created. We've been spending a good deal of time thinking about and discussing what a potential "white swan" may look like, and up until late last week we had a lot of ideas but no real opinion on what form a potential white swan may take.

The most obvious upside catalyst many have discussed is some positive resolution out of Europe, which we've considered. However, because we believe the problems in Europe really cannot be "fixed", we've been left to assess the perception of any plan put forth - i.e. would it be enough to stoke risk taking. While some kind of plan out of Europe may still drive risk appetite higher, we believe there may be a major white swan unfolding relative to the US housing and mortgage market.

I've commented regularly over the past few months about our view regarding the Federal Reserve and its very academic minded process of incrementalism. It is rare that they act without some identifiable trail of bread crumbs which provide clues. Over the past couple of months, the Fed has now thrown out a number of bread crumbs that a major policy move was in the offing. First, there was Operation Twist, which by itself was a curious announcement given Ben Bernanke's luke warm assessment of that kind of policy in the past. It seems logical to us that Operation Twist was a foundation laid for additional policy action.

Next up, Bill Gross of PIMCO fame began to comment about the potential for further asset buying by the Fed (i.e. QEIII) targeting mortgage backed securities. Mr. Gross has had a good pipeline into the Fed in recent years, which isn't surprising given that he heads up the largest pool of bond market capital in the US. The next bread crumb has been several public comments from Fed governors relating to the importance of the housing market and the need for a role by the Fed. Finally, Monday came an announcement that the government would be slackening underwriting rules for underwater mortgages via the FHA, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

The "click" moment last week happened for us after I received an email forwarding a WSJ article chronicling a Fed governor's speech on the subject (thanks again Rich). A major intervention in the mortgage market would "accomplish" a number of vital goals as laid out by the Fed and also address the political reality faced by incumbent politicians:

1.    Operation Twist was performed to drive long term rates down in order to help facilitate mortgage refinancing and make any refinancing even more potent as far as freeing up cash. For example, let's assume a family with a $500,000 mortgage at 6%, which they have not been able to refinance due to being under water. If they are able to refinance based on a current value of $400,000 (many markets are down 20% or more from their peak) at current rates around 4.5%, the difference in monthly mortgage payment would be about $1,000.

2.    The Fed and the federal government could brand such a program as something other than a bailout for Wall Street. So far there has been one thing pretty clear about the US public's tolerance for bailouts - they are only against the reckless spending and policies in Washington DC in the abstract. When they are personally positioned to benefit, such policies are popular and poll well. There are so many people for whom this kind of initiative could benefit from, at least in the short to intermediate term, that I believe it would likely receive far less political backlash compared to prior money printing. Essentially, bailing out Main Street will be far more popular than Wall Street.

3.    We are still approaching a major election year in which the President and Congress are very unpopular. History is pretty clear that such circumstances lead to some kind of policy action, whether it is fiscal or monetary. Re-election is a bipartisan theme incumbents can embrace!

4.    The benefits from lower rates has been muted due to the lack of a transmission mechanism - namely that many cannot refinance. A major mortgage centered program could legitimately defrost some of the credit system, which could go a long way in putting a charge into monetary velocity.

5.    Not surprisingly, it looks like any plan would have a significant benefit for US banks. However, they would largely be behind the scenes, which may make selling a plan easier.

Obviously, we are still brainstorming this topic, but the longer we analyze it the more we believe it "makes sense". I personally think it would be a disaster long term, but given the various entrenched interests in Washington and the big banks, it could address a lot of issues in the short to intermediate term.

Source: PennLive.com (blog)

Progressive Fresh Herb Keeper | The Best Chef

by The Best Chef

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